Overview

This week we'll learn some techniques for identifying and estimating non-seasonal ARIMA models. We'll also look at the basics of using an ARIMA model to make forecasts. We'll look at seasonal ARIMA models next week. Lesson 3.1 gives the basic ideas for determining a model and analyzing residuals after a model has been estimated. Lesson 3.2 gives a test for residual autocorrelations. Lesson 3.3 gives some basics for forecasting using ARIMA models. We'll look at other forecasting models later in the course. This all relates to Chapter 3 in the book, although the authors give quite a theoretical treatment of the topic(s).